70%
Unlikely to re-elect, or unsure
30% say they are likely to
Data Room · UT-02
Utah's 2nd District, by the numbers
Polling, issue priorities, and statewide context for Utah's 2nd Congressional District. Every figure is published with its source, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. New datasets are added as they become available.
Last updated
Note. Surveys commissioned by this campaign are labeled internal polling. Independent public polling is labeled separately and attributed to its pollster. Question wording, sample size, field dates, and margin of error are listed for every figure on this page.
District polling
September 21–23, 2026 survey
34.9%
vs.32.0%
Peter Crosby
Blake Moore
Too close to call
Crosby is ahead by 2.9 points, within the ±3.8-point margin of error.
Internal poll · ballot test
If the election were held today
“If the election were held today, who would you vote for?”
Peter Crosby 34.9%, Blake Moore 32.0%. The 2.9-point gap is within the ±3.8-point margin of error, so the race remains too close to call, and 30.0% are unsure or chose none of the above.
- Peter Crosby
- Other
- Unsure
- None of the above
- Blake Moore
Peter Crosby
34.9% 31.1–38.7
Blake Moore
32.0% 28.2–35.8
Bands show each candidate’s ±3.8-point margin of error.
All responses n = 657 · ±3.8 pts
Internal poll, Peter Crosby for Congress. 657 likely voters across Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02), Sept. 21–23, 2026. ±3.8% margin of error.
Internal poll · crosstabs
Ballot test, by party
“If the election were held today, who would you vote for?”
Republicans favor Moore 44.6% to 20.3%, with 31.7% unsure or choosing none of the above. Unaffiliated voters favor Crosby 43.2% to 15.2%.
- Peter Crosby
- Other
- Unsure
- None of the above
- Blake Moore
All voters n = 657 · ±3.8 pts
Republicans n = 413 · ±4.8 pts
Unaffiliated n = 132 · ±8.5 pts
The release reports the ballot question by party for Republicans and unaffiliated voters only. Margins for party groups are calculated from each group’s sample size, at 95% confidence.
Internal poll, Peter Crosby for Congress. 657 likely voters across Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02), Sept. 21–23, 2026. ±3.8% margin of error.
Internal polls · Sept. trend
Ballot test, Sept. 8–10 to Sept. 21–23
“If the election were held today, who would you vote for?”
Between the two surveys Crosby is +4.1, while Moore is −0.4. Neither change is larger than the ±5.5 points a difference between two surveys has to clear, so the movement is not measurable.
Sept. 8–10 Sept. 21–23
All voters
Peter Crosby 30.7% 34.9%
Blake Moore 32.4% 32.0%
Unsure 25.1% 23.3%
Internal polls, Peter Crosby for Congress: Sept. 8–10, 2026 (n = 762) and Sept. 21–23, 2026 (n = 657).
Internal poll · issue priorities
Top concerns
“Please let us know your top concerns (multiple selections possible).”
Affordability (75.2%) and government accountability (70.3%) are the most-cited concerns, followed by the Great Salt Lake (45.2%).
Affordability Housing, healthcare & food prices
75.2%
Government accountability Ethics, insider trading & closing loopholes
70.3%
The Great Salt Lake
45.2%
Access to public lands
30.4%
DOGE cuts
27.4%
Other
14.0%
Respondents could choose more than one concern, so shares add up to more than 100%.
Internal poll, Peter Crosby for Congress. 657 likely voters across Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02), Sept. 21–23, 2026. ±3.8% margin of error.
Internal poll · crosstabs
Top concerns, by party
“Please let us know your top concerns (multiple selections possible).”
Affordability and government accountability are the top two concerns in every party group.
| Concern | All voters n = 657 | Democrats n = 89† | Republicans n = 413 | Unaffiliated n = 132 | Other party n = 23† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Affordability | 75.2% | 87.6% | 71.9% | 77.3% | 73.9% |
| Government accountability | 70.3% | 80.9% | 65.6% | 75.0% | 87.0% |
| The Great Salt Lake | 45.2% | 67.4% | 40.9% | 41.7% | 56.5% |
| Access to public lands | 30.4% | 44.9% | 25.9% | 31.8% | 47.8% |
| DOGE cuts | 27.4% | 48.3% | 19.6% | 34.9% | 43.5% |
| Other | 14.0% | 15.7% | 13.6% | 15.9% | 4.3% |
† Small sample: margins of error are about ±10 points for Democrats and ±20 points for other-party voters.
Internal poll, Peter Crosby for Congress. 657 likely voters across Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02), Sept. 21–23, 2026. ±3.8% margin of error.
Internal polls · Sept. trend
Top concerns, Sept. 8–10 to Sept. 21–23
“Please let us know your top concerns (multiple selections possible).”
The order of concerns is unchanged: affordability first, government accountability second. Every shift between the two surveys is within the margin of error.
Sept. 8–10 Sept. 21–23
All voters
Affordability 74.4% 75.2%
Government accountability 69.8% 70.3%
The Great Salt Lake 43.6% 45.2%
Access to public lands 28.5% 30.4%
DOGE cuts 24.0% 27.4%
Other 13.0% 14.0%
Respondents could choose more than one concern, so shares add up to more than 100%.
Internal polls, Peter Crosby for Congress: Sept. 8–10, 2026 (n = 762) and Sept. 21–23, 2026 (n = 657).
September 8–10, 2026 survey
32.4%
vs.30.7%
Blake Moore
Peter Crosby
A statistical tie
The 1.7-point gap is within the ±4-point margin of error.
Internal poll · ballot test
If the election were held today
“If the election were held today, who would you vote for?”
Blake Moore 32.4%, Peter Crosby 30.7%. The 1.7-point gap is within the ±4-point margin of error, and 33.6% are unsure or chose none of the above.
- Peter Crosby
- Other
- Unsure
- None of the above
- Blake Moore
Blake Moore
32.4% 28.4–36.4
Peter Crosby
30.7% 26.7–34.7
Bands show each candidate’s ±4-point margin of error.
All responses n = 762 · ±4 pts
Internal poll, Peter Crosby for Congress. 762 randomized, registered voters across Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02), Sept. 8–10, 2026. ±4% margin of error.
Internal poll · crosstabs
Ballot test, by party
“If the election were held today, who would you vote for?”
Republicans favor Moore 45.7% to 18.0%, with 32.6% unsure or choosing none of the above. Unaffiliated voters favor Crosby 39.4% to 16.5%.
- Peter Crosby
- Other
- Unsure
- None of the above
- Blake Moore
All voters n = 762 · ±4 pts
Republicans n = 350 · ±5.2 pts
Unaffiliated n = 109 · ±9.4 pts
The release reports the ballot question by party for Republicans and unaffiliated voters only. Margins for party groups are calculated from each group’s sample size, at 95% confidence.
Internal poll, Peter Crosby for Congress. 762 randomized, registered voters across Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02), Sept. 8–10, 2026. ±4% margin of error.
Internal poll · issue priorities
Top concerns
“Please let us know your top concerns (multiple selections possible).”
Affordability (74.4%) and government accountability (69.8%) are the most-cited concerns, followed by the Great Salt Lake (43.6%).
Affordability Housing, healthcare & food prices
74.4%
Government accountability Ethics, insider trading & closing loopholes
69.8%
The Great Salt Lake
43.6%
Access to public lands
28.5%
DOGE cuts
24.0%
Other
13.0%
Respondents could choose more than one concern, so shares add up to more than 100%.
Internal poll, Peter Crosby for Congress. 762 randomized, registered voters across Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02), Sept. 8–10, 2026. ±4% margin of error.
Internal poll · crosstabs
Top concerns, by party
“Please let us know your top concerns (multiple selections possible).”
Affordability and government accountability are the top two concerns in every party group.
| Concern | All voters n = 762 | Democrats n = 75† | Republicans n = 350 | Unaffiliated n = 109 | Other party n = 45† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Affordability | 74.4% | 73.3% | 72.3% | 79.8% | 80.0% |
| Government accountability | 69.8% | 82.7% | 66.3% | 71.6% | 75.6% |
| The Great Salt Lake | 43.6% | 60.0% | 38.0% | 51.4% | 44.4% |
| Access to public lands | 28.5% | 40.0% | 21.7% | 39.5% | 28.9% |
| DOGE cuts | 24.0% | 52.0% | 19.4% | 23.9% | 22.2% |
| Other | 13.0% | 14.7% | 10.9% | 13.8% | 24.4% |
† Small sample: margins of error are about ±11 points for Democrats and ±15 points for other-party voters.
Internal poll, Peter Crosby for Congress. 762 randomized, registered voters across Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02), Sept. 8–10, 2026. ±4% margin of error.
Internal polls · Aug. vs. Sept.
Top issues, Aug. to Sept.
Affordability and government accountability remain the top two concerns. No change between the two surveys exceeds the margin of error.
Aug. Sept.
Affordability Housing, healthcare & food prices
All voters 79% 74%
Republicans 73% 72%
Unaffiliated 80% 80%
Government accountability Ethics, insider trading & closing loopholes
All voters 68% 70%
Republicans 65% 66%
Unaffiliated 71% 72%
Internal polls, Peter Crosby for Congress: Aug. 3–17, 2026 (n = 565) and Sept. 8–10, 2026 (n = 762). Shown in whole points, the precision of the August release.
August 3–17, 2026 survey
57%
Dissatisfied with Rep. Moore
Somewhat or very dissatisfied
33%
Republicans unlikely to back Moore
Includes those who are unsure
47%
Unaffiliated voters unlikely to back Moore
Unaffiliated and independent voters, 43% of the electorate. Excludes those who are unsure.
79%
Name affordability a top priority
Highest-ranked issue in the district
Internal poll · UT-02
Satisfaction with Rep. Moore
“How satisfied are you with our current representative (Rep. Blake Moore)?”
57% of district voters report dissatisfaction with the incumbent; 43% report satisfaction.
- Very satisfied
- Somewhat satisfied
- Somewhat dissatisfied
- Very dissatisfied
Internal poll, Peter Crosby for Congress. 565 randomized, registered voters across Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02), Aug. 3–17, 2026. ±4% margin of error. This question had an 89% response rate.
Internal poll · UT-02
Likelihood to re-elect
“How likely are you to vote for Blake Moore this November?”
30% say they are likely to vote for the incumbent. 70% are unlikely to, or undecided.
- Very likely
- Somewhat likely
- Somewhat unlikely
- Very unlikely
- Unsure
19% Unsure — shown separately, as it sits on neither side of the scale.
Internal poll, Peter Crosby for Congress. 565 randomized, registered voters across Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02), Aug. 3–17, 2026. ±4% margin of error.
Independent polling
The Utah Debate Commission’s district survey
This is the first poll of this district on this page that the campaign did not commission. The Utah Debate Commission runs it through the Hinckley Institute of Politics to set the thresholds that decide who appears on the debate stage, and it publishes the full results sheet for every congressional district.
39.0%
vs.34.0%
Blake Moore
Peter Crosby
Too close to call
Moore is ahead by 5.0 points, within the ±7.4-point margin for a gap.
The commission’s methodology states that no data weighting was applied, and that the sample was drawn from the public voter-registration list matched to public contact records. Interviews were conducted by phone and online by Lighthouse Research & Development.
Independent poll · full ballot
The full five-way ballot
“If the election for the US House of Representatives were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for in 2nd congressional district?”
Blake Moore 39.0%, Peter Crosby 34.0%. The 5.0-point gap does not clear the margin of error, so this survey also leaves the race too close to call. 10.7% are undecided and 13.9% name one of the three minor-party candidates — together, about a quarter of respondents are not with either major candidate.
Blake D. Moore Republican
39.0%
Peter Crosby Democrat
34.0%
Undecided Not read as an option
10.7%
Daniel Cottam Libertarian
4.9%
Robert M. Moesinger Unaffiliated
4.9%
Carlton E. Bowen Independent American
4.1%
Other Not read as an option
2.5%
Every candidate who will appear on the ballot was read as an option; “Other” and “Undecided” were not read aloud but were recorded when volunteered. Shares are of all 515 respondents. The commission publishes a ±4.3-point margin for a single share. The ±7.4-point figure above is the margin on the gap between two candidates, which is wider — this page calculates it; the commission does not publish it.
Utah Debate Commission, Sept. 10–24, 2026. Utah’s 2nd Congressional District.
Not directly comparable to the campaign’s internal polling. This survey asks the full five-way ballot, while the internal polls ask a two-way Crosby-versus-Moore question that reports both major candidates higher. Sampling, weighting and field length differ as well.
Statewide context
Independent public poll
Net job approval, August 2026
Every officeholder and institution measured was net negative — disapproval exceeded approval in each case.
Deseret News / Hinckley Institute of Politics, August 2026. Statewide. Net = approve minus disapprove; the Congress figure is the published net.
Change since January
Gov. Cox's approval fell from 51% in January 2026 to 41% in August 2026, a change of -10 points.
Deseret News / Hinckley Institute of Politics, August 2026. Statewide.
On the ground
Campaign-reported operational counts — organizing activity, not survey results. Town halls as of September 2026; volunteers and funds raised as of the September 14 release; donors as of the August release.
40+
Town halls
In person and virtual, across UT-02 since launch
400+
Registered volunteers
Signed up since launch
550+
Individual donors
No corporate PAC money accepted
$100K+
Raised
From small-dollar and individual donors, over 95% in Utah
Methodology
Campaign internal poll · Sept. 21–23
- Sponsor
- Peter Crosby for Congress (internal)
- Sample
- 657 likely voters
- Geography
- Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02)
- Field dates
- Sept. 21–23, 2026
- Margin of error
- ±3.8 percentage points
- Partisanship
- Sponsored by this campaign — an interested party
The campaign’s release discloses that registered Republicans were oversampled by about 11 points — 63% of the sample — against voter-registration data at the time of the poll.
Read the full release →Campaign internal poll · Sept. 8–10
- Sponsor
- Peter Crosby for Congress (internal)
- Sample
- 762 randomized, registered voters
- Geography
- Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02)
- Field dates
- Sept. 8–10, 2026
- Margin of error
- ±4 percentage points
- Partisanship
- Sponsored by this campaign — an interested party
Campaign internal poll · August
- Sponsor
- Peter Crosby for Congress (internal)
- Sample
- 565 randomized, registered voters
- Geography
- Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02)
- Field dates
- Aug. 3–17, 2026
- Margin of error
- ±4 percentage points
- Partisanship
- Sponsored by this campaign — an interested party
Independent district poll · Sept. 10–24
- Pollster
- Utah Debate Commission at the Hinckley Institute of Politics
- Sample
- 515 registered voters
- Geography
- Utah’s 2nd Congressional District
- Field dates
- Sept. 10–24, 2026
- Margin of error
- ±4.32 percentage points
- Partisanship
- Independent — not affiliated with any campaign
The commission’s methodology states that no data weighting was applied, and that the sample was drawn from the public voter-registration list matched to public contact records. Interviews were conducted by phone and online by Lighthouse Research & Development.
Read the poll ↗Statewide public poll
- Pollster
- Deseret News / Hinckley Institute of Politics
- Geography
- Statewide (Utah)
- Field period
- August 2026
- Partisanship
- Independent — not affiliated with any campaign
What is not modeled here
This page reports only real, attributable figures — the campaign’s own polling and published public polls — never modeled or estimated ones. The following are not represented:
- Ballot-test figures for Democrats and other-party voters. Neither September survey breaks the Crosby-versus-Moore question out for those groups, so only Republicans and unaffiliated voters appear in the by-party chart.
- Forecast or win probability. No predictive model is applied. A forecast would require repeated independent polling of the district.
- County-level breakouts. The sample spans five counties but was not published disaggregated; n = 657 is too small for reliable subgroup estimates.